EE#19 Five questions on extreme heat
The UK is going to have to prepare, luckily someone knows how
Welcome to, what is on average the coldest, but thankfully shortest, month of the year in the UK. We have short memories and short horizons when it comes to policy. We forget until winter the extent that people struggle with energy bills. We forget until they’re underwater that 2 million people are at severe flood risk. So what better time than February to talk about extreme heat.
Amelia Dearman is a senior government relations adviser at Wellcome, a global charitable foundation that aims to improve human health. She is also this one of this year’s Churchill Fellows (a fantastic, funded, scheme you should apply for). Her research this summer took lessons from American cities that are better prepared for extreme heat than we are in the UK. Millie kindly answered five questions from me on what the problem is, what policies we need and what the politics of change are.
The Problem
Comparing cities side-by-side isn’t always perfect, but clearly this is a significant problem. Summer 2022 in England was the hottest on record, with 2,985 excess deaths, the highest since 2016. In New York City, on average 350 people die prematurely annually because of hot weather. In London, during the 2022 summer heatwave there were around 387 deaths.
What concerns me about those numbers is that they are only projected to grow. The UK Health Security Agency estimates that under a high emissions scenario, UK-heat related deaths are estimated to increase by one and a half times in the 2030s and by 12 times by 2070.
The design of cities makes people who live there particularly vulnerable, so with these projections in mind, we need to think now about how we plan these spaces so that people can be protected in the long-term.
The People
Ultimately everyone in the UK will experience higher temperatures for more days in the year, given the current emissions trajectory. But, these impacts will not be felt equally.
A major theme in the US was that vulnerability to extreme heat is underpinned by social and environmental factors. This is particularly acute in cities where the historic racist practice of redlining means that whole neighbourhoods, like Harlem, haven’t received investment, making it harder for those living there to adapt to adapt.
In the UK, there is emerging evidence that there are particular boroughs that are more vulnerable to heat impacts – that could help us prioritise resources. People of colour are four times more likely to live in these areas at high risk of dangerous levels of heat.
In the 2022 UK excess death data, the most vulnerable group are over 65s, so this group also needs to be at the forefront of planning. Children are also particularly at risk of overheating.
There are also broader health impacts and risk factors to consider that cut across age groups – we know for example that extreme heat is associated with an increase in suicide and some psychiatric medications, like some antidepressants can affect the way a person’s body regulates temperature and put people at risk.
The Policy
It has to be local but with finance and coordination from Whitehall. Response at a city or local level is appropriate for solutions like better shading, city planning, and accessing at-risk groups. Local policymakers have the data and understanding of local context which is critical in getting adaptations that work for communities. National-level policies could include improving building regulations to reduce excess heat and setting a maximum temperature limit for safe working.
The Biden Administration’s Inflation Reduction Act is unlocking finance for adaptation at the state and city level. Over $60 billion has been assigned to environmental justice priorities to help communities adapt. There’s also targeting to ensure 40% of the benefits of all Act funding are targeted to disadvantaged communities that are marginalised, underserved, and overburdened by pollution. UK parties should be increasing finance for adaptation to meet local needs, with targeting for the most at risk groups in the short-term.
The Politics
The impacts of climate change are being felt now by Americans, and all States regardless of whether they’re blue or red are having to act – IRA funding is beginning to trickle down the system and shape approaches. However, there is not bipartisan support for climate action writ-large, particularly on mitigation; you only have to look at the latest from Republican primaries to see that is the case. Parts of IRA will likely be on the chopping board if the Republicans return to the White House, so it’s by no means a silver bullet. The worry is that takes not just mitigation but adaptation backwards.
There have been a couple of extreme examples of climate progressive cities being pulled back by scepticism from Republican hardliners. In Texas, the state where the most workers die from high temperatures, Republican State Governor Greg Abbott signed a bill amidst an intense heatwave last year to limit cities and counties from passing policies on workers' rights in extreme heat. It included nullifying laws in Austin and Dallas for mandated water breaks. You can start to see some parallels with how the London congestion charge has been used as a political wedge between the Labour Mayor and Conservative national government.
5. The Public
Climate change is more of a partisan issue in the US, whereas in the UK it’s an important issue across the Labour/Conservative divide. However, Americans have grown more worried about extreme heat over any other impacts of climate change. Environmental justice advocates in US cities have been pushing heavily on the extreme heat agenda and now resources (in theory) should be flowing to them more through IRA. There isn’t yet a vocal group in the UK for this adaptation action, particularly not from the communities most affected. Much of the focus, understandably is on mitigation. Yet, generally concern about heatwaves has increased and UK citizens feel the government is underprepared to deal with this threat. So, there is an opportunity for advocacy groups to push this agenda forward – those could be traditional climate groups or groups with a clear vulnerable constituency like Age UK.
PS: MPs this week have also called for a UK heatwave plan
Thanks to Millie for sharing her research, we’ll do some more on extreme heat soon, I’m particularly interested in this workers rights issue.
If you know of other researchers that should get featured on Election Energy, leave a comment below, or share this post with them.