EE#14 Not another COP newsletter
Starmer goes to Dubai and we go to France
Good Kop, Bad COP
For the absent-minded observer, there is little difference between a party conference and a conference of parties*. Even attendees would be forgiven for confusing the two when, in a faceless conference centre in Dubai, the Labour frontbench walks round the corner. Don’t worry it is not a traumatic flashback to the ACC, they haven’t gotten the Kop and COP confused. Starmer wants to be there - but why?
This year's COP is the biggest ever, with 70,000 people descending on the UAE (double Glasgow in 2021). A minority of those are there for the hard graft, negotiating the Paris rulebook or language of international treaties. Some are there because COP is a good place to announce other things. Think the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance or the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero launched at COP26, and this year The Buildings Breakthough. In a world where decarbonisation is increasingly about economic competiton, many of the major announcements (loss and damage notwithstanding) are bi- and mini-lateral.
The biggest growth in attendees has been in corporates. COP is increasingly like party conferences. Public affairs agencies are advising clients it's a good place to be seen, and maybe have a coffee with someone important, even if your exact purpose is, let's say unclear.
Starmer doesn’t sit neatly in any of these buckets. There is a risk that opposition leaders in international settings look impotent. But being at COP is the latest in a string of diplomatic engagements from Starmer - Trudeau, Macron, Mitsotakis. Labour likes to say it is not presumptuous about entering government and the political cliche of measuring up the curtains. That isn’t true on the international stage. Starmer can credibly meet with leaders because everyone assumes he will be the next UK Prime Minister. It also serves as a point of political differentiation with Sunak, who increasingly lacks the political stability at home to spend time abroad looking prime ministerial.
Meeting is all well and good but international leaders expect you to have something to say, especially on climate (another reason Sunak was not desperate to stay for long). The first is that Labour’s domestic plans, its Green Prosperity Pledge, Clean Power Mission and industrial strategy mesh well with allies’ plans in the US, Australia or EU. Beyond the domestic quibbles about borrowing, the shape of Labour’s policy is more in keeping with a global wave of industrial policy, than Conservative’s classically liberal approach.
In this, Starmer is ably flanked by Ed Miliband who has been attending COPs since the late 2000s, knows the people and crucially knows the issues. He will sometime in the future surely be the UK’s John Kerry - serious domestic credibility, taken to the world stage.
Starmer also gave further detail on how a future Labour Government would push its own mini-lateral club, the Clean Power Alliance. Again, a reflection of domestic policy, and is the UK’s attempt to see how, what appears like protectionist national industrial policies, could join up internationally.
The UK doesn’t have the easiest role on the global stage, but as a broker on these issues could be very important. The EU and US have fallen out over EV tariffs. The Inflation Reduction Act treats some Australian mineral producers like they are American companies to avoid restrictions. America and Europe have also yet to reach an agreement on trading low-carbon steel and aluminium. A Labour Government would need to sort out some issues first, not least EVs and Emissions Trading Scheme linkage with Europe, but with that done could genuinely be helpful.
Keir attending the Conference of Parties will not be noticed by much of the electorate, but that’s fine, that’s what party conference is for. His attendance though does continue to add shape to what a Labour government would do, and by warming up allies, could make it quicker and easier to achieve when they get there.
Some interesting things in France
Speaking of meeting Macron, some fun things are happening in France that its worth keeping an eye on.
Les VUS - Vehicle under scrutiny
The first is in Paris, where Anne Hidalgo is holding a referendum on SUVs. While Sadiq Khan got some stick for ULEZ, his plans are minimal compared to what his French friend and counterpart has achieved. Car use is falling dramatically in Paris, much of the city centre is now pedestrianised, and soon cars will be completely banned from four of the central arrondissements (boroughs). Hidalgo copped some flack for her plans initially, notably from the right, but unlike the Uxbridge by-election, this was never interpreted as nationally significant (although probably contributed to Hidalgo’s poor presidential performance). Her team realised early that the vast majority of Parisians do not drive, and those that do weren’t voting for her.
The SUV vote is significant. Heavier cars are worse for air pollution and more dangerous. The proposal would effectively make the cost of parking so prohibitive it wouldn’t be worth it. This matters because it would also apply to EVs. Norway is now finding its support for EVs has caused difficulties for its cities with heavy, luxury vehicles clogging up narrow roads in Oslo and Bergen. If Paris voters support Hidalgo’s measures, other cities could follow suit, and send a message to EV producers to start making smaller, safer vehicles.
Les thermopompes sounds cooler than heat pumps
Nationally, heat pumps are going gangbusters in France. The country installed 3.1 million of them in the past two years, more than any country in Europe. The UK managed 100,000. France has some aspects which make this easier - a state-run nuclear energy system has kept electricity prices very low. As Nesta has shown energy prices are one of the biggest barriers to UK adoption. French building standards are also higher, meaning heat pumps are more efficient.
Macron, not one for half-arsing things, is not happy with Europe leading. In a new plan in September, coincided I’m sure unintentionally with the German government’s struggles over heat pumps, he announced La Republique would go further. France will also aim to triple production of heat pumps in the next four years not just installation. Why does that matter? 2027 will be midway through the next UK government, or the exact time Labour is trying to ramp up heat pump installation. If TCA renegotiations have gone well, Macron’s efforts have reduced the cost of production, and Labour’s clean heat plan is working, it’ll be French thermopompes competing with Octopus’s best of British on cost. While the Telegraph will have a field day, don’t worry we need tens of millions of heat pumps - plenty to go around.
